UFC 102 Predictions

I'm going to post two sets of predictions here. The first set will be how the fights are simulated by World of Mixed Martial Arts, a computer simulation game. (Available at GreydogSoftware.com). The second set will be my own personal prediction, and then after the event, we'll see how I stack up against the machine.

Starting from the bottom of the card:

"The Polish Experiment" Krzysztof Soszynski (18-8-1) Vs Brandon "the Truth" Vera (10-3)

WMMA: Vera by unanimous decision.

My Prediction: Soszynski by TKO in the 2nd Round.

The Truth was supposed to be the future of the Heavyweight division, having predicted early in his career that he would hold both the Heavyweight and Light Heavyweight titles in the UFC. Two straight losses to Tim Sylvia and Fabricio Werdum prompted Vera to make the cut to 205 pounds, but I haven't been impressed with his outings. Two decisions (a win over IFL Veteran Reese Andy and a loss to Keith Jardine) started his run at Light Heavyweight. He is coming off of a brutal TKO over Michael Patt, where he chopped his leg down with vicious leg kicks until Patt could not continue. This won't happen against Soszynski though, and I'm not sure if Vera is ready for what the Polish-Canadian warrior will bring into the cage on Saturday night.

Since December of 08, Soszynski has fought three times, two of which happened in April and May. This will be his fourth fight in less than a year, and his third fight in five months. Since he entered the UFC, Krzysztof has shown a desire to be an aggressive and exciting fighter, and an even stronger desire to keep active and fight as often as possible. Many people believe that this may be a detriment to his career, as he could fight "too much" potentially, but I see him growing stronger with each victory. If there is a Terminator in the UFC right now, this man is it.

This is also my pick for Fight of the Night.

Nate "the Great" Marquardt (28-8-2) Vs Demian Maia (10-0)

WMMA: Marquardt by unanimous decision.

My Prediction: Marquardt by unanimous decision.

Nate has traditionally done well with staying out of trouble against Jiu-Jitsu fighters, but he has yet to fight someone with the pedigree of the undefeated Demian Maia.

Conversely, however, Maia has yet to fight someone with the all-around skills that the former King of Pancrase employs.

This is a very interesting match-up, as neither man has faced Championship calibre competition recently (or in Maia's case, at all). The winner of this fight could potentially shoot himself to the top of the Middleweight rankings, but he would have to win in dominating fashion, and I just don't see that happening. We haven't seen what skills Maia possesses beyond his Jiu-Jitsu, so maybe he will surprise me out there, but I expect to see a ground battle where Marquardt edges out the decision by using his excellent base and strength to stay on top and do enough damage to win the fight.

Jake Rosholt (5-1) Vs Chris "the Crippler" Leben (18-6)

WMMA: Leben by TKO in Round 1.

My Prediction: Leben by TKO in Round 2.

Rosholt is coming off of his first career loss (a submission to Dan Miller at Ultimate Fight Night 17) in his only UFC fight thus far. His best chance against Leben is to use his wrestling and stay in close, get this to the ground quickly and try to control it there.

Good luck with that, though. The Crippler is fresh off a suspension and every time Rosholt tries to get in close, I expect that Leben will serve up a steaming right hand with a side of the left. Coming off his suspension and a loss to Michael Bisping, Leben will have a lot to prove, and a lot of fire to burn. This fight will end in devastating fashion, with Leben standing over the unconscious body of Jake Rosholt, who will fall to 0-2 in the UFC.

"The Dean of Mean" Keith Jardine (14-5-1) Vs Thiago Silva (13-1)

WMMA: Jardine by 2nd Round Knockout

My Prediction: Silva by 1st Round Knockout

Jardine has gone the distance in his last two fights, but Thiago Silva has only escaped the first round once in his five UFC bouts. Coming off of a Knockout loss to Lyoto Machida (who since then has gone on to become the Light Heavyweight Champion), Thiago is a man who doesn't stop moving forward. Unlike Rampage Jackson and Brandon Vera, Silva will not give Jardine the chance to escape the first round. It will be kill or be killed when these two men step into the Octagon, and unfortunately for Jardine, he's standing right in the line of fire.

These two men will explode and challenge Vera/Soszynski for Fight of the Night, but I just don't see it lasting long enough to earn that honor. One of these men will be Knocked Out, and it won't take long to happen.

Antonio Rodrigo "Minotauro" Nogueira (31-5-1) Vs Randy "the Natural" Couture (16-9)

WMMA: Randy by submission in the 3rd Round.

My Prediction: Couture by unanimous decision.

If this fight gets finished... IF it does... it will be Nogueira catching a tired Couture with a submission in the final minutes of the fight. That being said, I expect that we will see a very close fight here, with Randy utilizing his wrestling ability and dirty boxing to control and punish Nog against the cage.

If this fight goes to the ground, Randy needs to be careful about not getting caught with a submission, but I fully expect that for the early part of the fight at least, we will see a boxing match. Couture's ground and pound is vicious, but Nogueira's Jiu-Jitsu off his back is legendary. Neither man will want to allow his opponent that opportunity, regardless of how confident they are in their own skills.

Regardless of the outcome, this is two legends finally meeting in the cage. Two of the best spokesmen for Mixed Martial Arts coming together tomorrow night in the main event. Two of the classiest, most well respected men in the business. This is a fight of honor and respect, and epitomizes exactly what MMA is all about.

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So there you have it, my UFC 102 predictions. Also if you order the show, there is a chance you could see Gabriel Gonzaga, "The Thrashing Machine" Tim Hague, Marcus "Maximus" Aurelio and TUF alumni Ed Herman, as all five men will be featured in preliminary fights.

We'll take a look on Sunday at how well I did with my main card predictions, but until then, I'd love to hear from you. You can comment here, or e-mail me at one.dark.flame@hotmail.com

I hope you all order and enjoy the show. Couture Vs Nogueira: The stuff legends are made of.