No Update Today

As the title says, there will not be an update on the blog today (aside from this one, telling you there won't be an update). This is due to me providing live coverage of UFC 102 exclusively for Gerweck.net

If you can't watch the show for whatever reason, make sure to check out my live coverage.

www.Gerweck.net

UFC 102 Predictions

I'm going to post two sets of predictions here. The first set will be how the fights are simulated by World of Mixed Martial Arts, a computer simulation game. (Available at GreydogSoftware.com). The second set will be my own personal prediction, and then after the event, we'll see how I stack up against the machine.

Starting from the bottom of the card:

"The Polish Experiment" Krzysztof Soszynski (18-8-1) Vs Brandon "the Truth" Vera (10-3)

WMMA: Vera by unanimous decision.

My Prediction: Soszynski by TKO in the 2nd Round.

The Truth was supposed to be the future of the Heavyweight division, having predicted early in his career that he would hold both the Heavyweight and Light Heavyweight titles in the UFC. Two straight losses to Tim Sylvia and Fabricio Werdum prompted Vera to make the cut to 205 pounds, but I haven't been impressed with his outings. Two decisions (a win over IFL Veteran Reese Andy and a loss to Keith Jardine) started his run at Light Heavyweight. He is coming off of a brutal TKO over Michael Patt, where he chopped his leg down with vicious leg kicks until Patt could not continue. This won't happen against Soszynski though, and I'm not sure if Vera is ready for what the Polish-Canadian warrior will bring into the cage on Saturday night.

Since December of 08, Soszynski has fought three times, two of which happened in April and May. This will be his fourth fight in less than a year, and his third fight in five months. Since he entered the UFC, Krzysztof has shown a desire to be an aggressive and exciting fighter, and an even stronger desire to keep active and fight as often as possible. Many people believe that this may be a detriment to his career, as he could fight "too much" potentially, but I see him growing stronger with each victory. If there is a Terminator in the UFC right now, this man is it.

This is also my pick for Fight of the Night.

Nate "the Great" Marquardt (28-8-2) Vs Demian Maia (10-0)

WMMA: Marquardt by unanimous decision.

My Prediction: Marquardt by unanimous decision.

Nate has traditionally done well with staying out of trouble against Jiu-Jitsu fighters, but he has yet to fight someone with the pedigree of the undefeated Demian Maia.

Conversely, however, Maia has yet to fight someone with the all-around skills that the former King of Pancrase employs.

This is a very interesting match-up, as neither man has faced Championship calibre competition recently (or in Maia's case, at all). The winner of this fight could potentially shoot himself to the top of the Middleweight rankings, but he would have to win in dominating fashion, and I just don't see that happening. We haven't seen what skills Maia possesses beyond his Jiu-Jitsu, so maybe he will surprise me out there, but I expect to see a ground battle where Marquardt edges out the decision by using his excellent base and strength to stay on top and do enough damage to win the fight.

Jake Rosholt (5-1) Vs Chris "the Crippler" Leben (18-6)

WMMA: Leben by TKO in Round 1.

My Prediction: Leben by TKO in Round 2.

Rosholt is coming off of his first career loss (a submission to Dan Miller at Ultimate Fight Night 17) in his only UFC fight thus far. His best chance against Leben is to use his wrestling and stay in close, get this to the ground quickly and try to control it there.

Good luck with that, though. The Crippler is fresh off a suspension and every time Rosholt tries to get in close, I expect that Leben will serve up a steaming right hand with a side of the left. Coming off his suspension and a loss to Michael Bisping, Leben will have a lot to prove, and a lot of fire to burn. This fight will end in devastating fashion, with Leben standing over the unconscious body of Jake Rosholt, who will fall to 0-2 in the UFC.

"The Dean of Mean" Keith Jardine (14-5-1) Vs Thiago Silva (13-1)

WMMA: Jardine by 2nd Round Knockout

My Prediction: Silva by 1st Round Knockout

Jardine has gone the distance in his last two fights, but Thiago Silva has only escaped the first round once in his five UFC bouts. Coming off of a Knockout loss to Lyoto Machida (who since then has gone on to become the Light Heavyweight Champion), Thiago is a man who doesn't stop moving forward. Unlike Rampage Jackson and Brandon Vera, Silva will not give Jardine the chance to escape the first round. It will be kill or be killed when these two men step into the Octagon, and unfortunately for Jardine, he's standing right in the line of fire.

These two men will explode and challenge Vera/Soszynski for Fight of the Night, but I just don't see it lasting long enough to earn that honor. One of these men will be Knocked Out, and it won't take long to happen.

Antonio Rodrigo "Minotauro" Nogueira (31-5-1) Vs Randy "the Natural" Couture (16-9)

WMMA: Randy by submission in the 3rd Round.

My Prediction: Couture by unanimous decision.

If this fight gets finished... IF it does... it will be Nogueira catching a tired Couture with a submission in the final minutes of the fight. That being said, I expect that we will see a very close fight here, with Randy utilizing his wrestling ability and dirty boxing to control and punish Nog against the cage.

If this fight goes to the ground, Randy needs to be careful about not getting caught with a submission, but I fully expect that for the early part of the fight at least, we will see a boxing match. Couture's ground and pound is vicious, but Nogueira's Jiu-Jitsu off his back is legendary. Neither man will want to allow his opponent that opportunity, regardless of how confident they are in their own skills.

Regardless of the outcome, this is two legends finally meeting in the cage. Two of the best spokesmen for Mixed Martial Arts coming together tomorrow night in the main event. Two of the classiest, most well respected men in the business. This is a fight of honor and respect, and epitomizes exactly what MMA is all about.

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So there you have it, my UFC 102 predictions. Also if you order the show, there is a chance you could see Gabriel Gonzaga, "The Thrashing Machine" Tim Hague, Marcus "Maximus" Aurelio and TUF alumni Ed Herman, as all five men will be featured in preliminary fights.

We'll take a look on Sunday at how well I did with my main card predictions, but until then, I'd love to hear from you. You can comment here, or e-mail me at one.dark.flame@hotmail.com

I hope you all order and enjoy the show. Couture Vs Nogueira: The stuff legends are made of.

Bye Bye WEC?

At the UFC 102 press conference on Thursday afternoon, UFC head honcho Dana White somewhat reluctantly made a few announcements. First, he stated that the UFC will be expanding its' live shows next year to "like three fights a month next year." Along with the expansion of shows, it looks likely that there will be an expansion of divisions within the promotion.

When asked by a reporter about the likelihood of seeing new divisions in the UFC (probably referring to the 195 or 225 pound ideas tossed around), Dana not only expressed an interest in adding lighter weight classes, but also came out and said that it will happen.

So what does this mean for World Extreme Cagefighting? The baby promotion of Zuffa has been doing exceptionally well with three weight classes (two of which are below the UFC's Lightweight division at 155 pounds). With the success of WEC, as well as the very valuable television deal with the Versus Network, it's highly unlikely that the promotion would end up being folded into the UFC completely.

The most likely scenario is that WEC will continue to operate as normal, but the UFC will pull some of the fighters up from the 135 and 145 pound weight classes to start them up inside the UFC. Fighters like Urijah Faber and Miguel Torres should be drawing in PPV numbers for Zuffa, and Dana White, as a businessman, knows this.

So will this be the end for WEC? Hardly. There is no doubt in my mind that World Extreme Cagefighting will continue to operate successfully, putting on tremendously exciting shows on Versus. There has been talk in recent months of adding a 125 pound division to the WEC, and this makes me believe that there has been no serious consideration of the promotion ceasing operations.

Jose Aldo (15-1) is next in line for a shot at the WEC Featherweight Championship, currently held by Mike Brown (22-4). The fight is tentatively scheduled to take place in November, but with Dana White's "sooner than later" stance on bringing the smaller weight classes into the UFC, one has to wonder whether or not this fight will take place. Aldo and Brown are among the top Featherweight fighters in the world, and an upstart division in the UFC would likely be looking at adding those names.

Many in the MMA community have disputed the claims from others that WEC is a "feeder" promotion to the UFC, but if things go down the way that I personally am expecting them to, then that's exactly what World Extreme Cagefighting will become. Whether this is a good thing or a bad thing is up to the fans, but one thing is for sure: there is no lack of talent under 155 pounds in Mixed Martial Arts, and sharing them with the UFC will not decrease the excitement level of the shows produced by WEC in the future.

Fedor Vs Rogers

Earlier today, Strikeforce announced the first opponent for #1 Ranked Heavyweight Fedor Emelianenko. The man simply known as Fedor has compiled a record of 30 wins, with 1 loss and 1 no contest to his name.

Recently, the Affliction MMA promotion closed its' doors after having to cancel their Trilogy event. With Josh Barnett testing positive and being denied his license by the California State Athletic Commission, everything turned into a giant mess. Originally, rumors were that Affliction was looking to find a replacement to fight Fedor. Names tossed around included former UFC fighter Jeff Monson, currently signed UFC Middleweight Vitor "the Phenom" Belfort, and Strikeforce standout, Brett Rogers.

Unfortunately for fans of Affliction, the promotion instead closed up shop and signed a deal with the UFC to return as a sponsor. Fans began speculation that The Last Emperor would be headed to the UFC, which many believe to be the only legitimate promotion in America.

Things would not work out favorably for the UFC fans though, as Fedor Emelianenko signed a contract with Strikeforce prior to their landmark Carano Vs Cyborg event, which crowned Cris Cyborg as the first ever Women's 145 Pound Champion of the promotion.

With names like Fabricio Werdum and Alistair Overeem, a lot of people had overlooked once again, the talented big man known appropriately as "The Grim". Brett Rogers was announced earlier today as the first opponent for Fedor in Strikeforce, with the bout taking place sometime this fall.

Rogers is 10-0 in his career, having stopped all of his fights before they went to a decision. Notable wins for The Grim include KO victories over James Thompson and Jon "the Sherpa" Murphy in EliteXC. Most impressive though, was his 22 second destruction of former UFC Heavyweight Champion, Andrei Arlovski in June.

The negative talk from a lot of MMA fans about Fedor has been that he is "dodging competition" by signing with Strikeforce instead of the UFC. But the question I pose to you is this: Is the difference in challengers for Fedor, between the two promotions, really that large? I plan on doing a long piece on that soon, but I would like to get your thoughts as well.

CSAC Overturns Decision

The California State Athletic Commission made a decision to change the result of the Billy Evangelista Vs Mike Aina fight at Strikeforce Challengers to a No Contest.

Originally, Aina was awarded the fight by Disqualification when Herb Dean ruled that Evangelista (undefeated at the time with a record of 9-0) struck the Hawaiian with an illegal knee to the head. The fans in the arena were upset, but didn't have a second chance to look at the end of the fight, as there was no big screen up for the event. Fans at home, however, were privy to several replays, all of which clearly showed that the knee strike was to the shoulder. (Pictured Below)

The black mark on Evangelista's record has been removed, and he remains undefeated with a record of 9-0 with 1 No Contest.

This brings up the question of instant replays though. Nevada has instituted the use of Instant Replays for fight ending discrepancies. Should California follow suit? Had instant replay been available, Evangelista may very well be standing at 10-0 right now. Aina clearly could not continue the fight, and the strike was a legal one. Should this situation prompt the CSAC to take a long, hard look at implementing instant replay?

Let me know what you think by posting a comment. Is Instant Replay (only for the end of a fight) a good idea for Mixed Martial Arts?